It has been harrowed times for most folks all over the world. But that’s one good thing about time - it never stays the same. This year we will see how a positively charged environment will revive our enthusiasm, post the onslaught of Covid-19 and the buoyancy in the economy on the whole. The slowdown will be good for the history books, but so will be the comeback and there are many reasons that support this theory of mine.
Let’s look at what the industry needs? We need money to change hands, we need to fuel manufacturing and trade with volumes and we need consumerism to do what it does best; empower the economy with money and do greater good by enjoying the festivities. The question is what are the key propellers that will make this happen.
Let me take you to 3 vital statistical data points that prove this festival season's buoyancy and economy re-bounding theory.
- With India achieving more than 76 percent of the 1st dose of vaccinations administered and more than 32 percent of the country is totally vaccinated with both doses and a new Covid-19 vaccine for children between ages 12-18 years being made available by Zydus Cadilla and its rollout being planned; such positive news in continued circulation and less of fear sensitizing news is enabling Indians to make a statement of victory against Covid-19. Though some opinions may quote restraint and proceed with caution I see this fearlessness as an important step towards the rebounding of the Indian economy.
- In order to prove this theory of a positive and buoyant festive season, it was imperative to evaluate some crucial statistics that would be an indicator of the oncoming buoyancy and boom. When one looks at industry indications for upward movement and trend, there is no better statistic than the country’s GST collection. If one has to evaluate the transaction of finished goods and services to give an indication and outlook of the festive season, I have taken the August 2021 and Sept 2021 revenue numbers that can be reflected upon. The government collected GST revenue to a tune of Rs 1,12,020 crore and Rs 1,17,010 crore in August 2021 and September 2021 respectively and this number was higher by 30 percent and 23 percent to the same period of the previous year.
- Another important statistic that gives an impetus to consumption across industries to support the production of merchandise is the merchandise export statistics. India’s merchandise exports grew exponentially by 45.17 percent in August 2021 garnering a revenue of US$ 33.14 billion over robust demand from other countries. The merchandise export in the period April- August 2021 stood at US$ 163.67 billion, that is an increase of 66.92 percent over US$ 98.05 billion in the corresponding April- August 2020 and an increase of 22 percent over US$ 133.14 billion in April-August 2019.
These signals are indications of great times ahead but as we need to make sure that we are not carried away and continue to be cautious and caring of our own wellbeing and the wellbeing of the economy. Least of all, let’s not forget the troublesome times that we have been through and continue to mask up and wash our hands even if we can’t socially distance ourselves amidst the ongoing festivities.
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