India e-commerce to grow 27%: Goldman Sachs

Online penetration of retail is expected to reach 10.7 per cent by 2024, versus 4.7 per cent in 2019.
India e-commerce to grow 27%: Goldman Sachs

India's e-commerce business is expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 27 per cent to reach USD 99 billion by 2024, Goldman Sachs said projecting that Reliance Industries would capture half of the online grocery sales through its Facebook.

In a report titled 'Global Internet: e-commerce's steepening curve', Goldman Sachs said the COVID-19 pandemic has driven a doubling of penetration of e-commerce globally with categories such as consumer packaged goods driving as much as three years of penetration growth in three months.

"We forecast India e-commerce will reach USD 99 billion by 2024, growing at a 27 per cent CAGR over 2019-24, with grocery and fashion/apparel likely to be the key drivers of incremental growth in our view," as report reads.

Online penetration of retail is expected to reach 10.7 per cent by 2024, versus 4.7 per cent in 2019. Goldman Sachs said adding the last 500 basis points of the increase took four years.

Grocery in India is a USD 380 billion category as of 2019, making up for 60 per cent of the total retail market.

"However, online penetration currently stands at less than 0.5 per cent (absolute size USD 2 billion), one of the least among categories," it said projecting the online grocery market in India to grow 20x over the next 5 years, to reach USD 29 billion in value (5.1 per cent penetration) by 2024.
 

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